Scenario
Planning
Scenario
Planning provides innovators with the ability to probe into the future to
assess the likelihood of something being developed based on current
technologies. In the Scenario Planning
video presented by Woody Wade, he stated that Albert Einstein’s response to a question
relating to the future was “I never think about the future, it gets here on its
own.” Wade stated that scientists look
at the future very differently than a professional who looks to the future to
get an idea that could make the prospect of the future better.
Scenario
planning consists of an altered future where decisions made today will take
effect at that time. When developing scenarios,
they should be tailored to fit the context at hand. Scenarios are just like a story – they have a
beginning, middle and end and contain plots lines that can weave all over the
place which depicts how future trends can modify outcomes. There are four major trends that need to be
taken into consideration when developing scenarios; they are Political – Economic – Societal – Technical or PEST.
Traditional
forecasting
Traditional
forecasting utilizes one or more of a series of models such as Trending, extrapolation
and curve fitting methods. There is also
adoption and penetration models, causal and multivariate methods, time-series
analysis, agent based models and tracker and bottom-up models. All of which utilize past trends and time
lines to forecast future eventualities.
Comparing
and Contrasting
Both
the scenario planning and traditional forecasting methods are not perfect as
they attempt to predict future happenings.
The former, scenario planning has an advantage due to the use of multiple
scenarios and taking future trends into consideration and finding the median possibility
between the best case and worst case scenarios while the latter utilizes past
indicators and mathematics to develop future predictions.
References
Ogilvy, J. (2015, Jan, 8). Scenario Planning and
Strategic Forecasting. Retrieved from Forbes / Washington Web Site: http://www.forbes.com/sites/stratfor/2015/01/08/scenario-planning-and-strategic-forecasting/#221221226b7b
Traditional Forecasting and Modeling Methods. (n.d) Retrieved
from Daniel Research Group - Understanding the Future Web Site: http://www.danielresearchgroup.com/WhatWeDo/ForecastsandMarketModels/TraditionalForecasting.aspx
Wade, W. (2014,
Sep, 3). Woody Wade: “Scenario Planning” - Thinking Differently about
Future Innovation. Retrieved from GLOBIS.JP - Gateway to the new Japan Web
Site: http://e.globis.jp/article/000363.html
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